A small team of operators and engineers building frontier onchain technology and producing academic research.

Bounded Catallaxy

"Draw a distinction and a universe comes into being."

Humans are embedded in complex adaptive systems. We deal with them the best we can. By combining frontier engineering and research, we study points of failure in order, legibility and equilibria for understanding and arbitrage.

Research
Working Paper No. 001 January 2026
Seeing Like A Market: Event Contracts and Market Topology
On the structural displacement of dealer-intermediated derivatives by emergent prediction markets for binary contingent claims.
○ Forthcoming
Working Paper No. 002 January 2026
Dating Market Dynamics: An ICAPM Extension with Asymmetric Volatility Structure
Applying variance risk premium and mechanism design frameworks to explain non-clearing equilibria in modern coupling markets.
PDF ↗
Working Paper No. 003 2026
The Ontology of Legibility
Distinction as ontological primitive. On the structure of derivability space and the conditions of epistemic emergence.
○ Forthcoming
Tools / Fun / Repos
Open Source GitHub →
Seeing Like A Market
Data, code and replication files for WP-001. Full empirical pipeline for variance risk premium decomposition across prediction markets and TradFi derivatives.
Demo Try it →
ICAPM-VRP Dating Coach
Asymmetric volatility for your love life. Applies variance risk premium and mechanism design frameworks to your romantic portfolio.
Infrastructure Docs →
iGaming Execution Engine
Trade infrastructure for iGaming surfaces. Order matching, settlement, and risk primitives extracted from 39 months of production operation.
Contact
@lzminsky research@bounded.works
Bounded Catallaxy · 2026